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How To Play 1-800-Flowers.Com's Earnings

1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (FLWS) is a florist and gift shop. The company delivers fresh flowers and a selection of plants, gift baskets, gourmet foods, confections, candles, balloons and plush stuffed animals. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Floral, Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets, and BloomNet Wire Service. The Consumer Floral segment includes the operations of the Company's brands, such as 1-800-Flowers.com, fruit bouquets, iFlorist and Flowerama. The Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets segment includes the operations of Harry & David, Fannie May Confections Brands, Cheryl's (which includes Mrs. Beasley's), The Popcorn Factory, Stockyards.com, DesignPac and 1-800-Baskets.com. It is reporting earnings on Thursday, August 25, after market open:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

As evident from the above, the company beat earnings estimates in 63% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming or showing in-line results in the rest of time, and has seen significant volatility and a strong positive trend in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

Market data show that the September options are undervalued:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The four-week straddles (options with a strike price of $10.00 and expiring on September 16, 2016) are worth around 10.1% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been more volatile than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 13.6% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a less than four weeks has an implied monthly volatility of around 12.6% (calculated based on 18 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event ершы week. I therefore see signs of undervaluation in these options. Hence, buying the straddles is a good idea from a theoretical standpoint. 

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