Five Stock To Own In The New Rates Environment
The interest rates are up by 25 basis points as of today. It is official now. The markets across the globe actually reacted positively to this news and ended in the positive territory today:
(Source: WhoTrades)
Now, what typically happens in the long-run when rates go up? Keep in mind that Yellen is not doing this rate hike in isolation - it is most likely going to be a series of increases over the next year or so. In the short-term, market are typically down,
On the other hand, interest rates heavily affect currencies. Namely, the US dollar will most likely keep appreciating against world currencies after a strong 2014-2015 performance. This means that companies with a lot of international operations, especially in countries with resource-based economies, will likely suffer from Forex headwinds. We already see this happening with multinationals like Procter & Gamble (PG) and Colgate (CL). It is going to be worse. Hence, investors should concentrate on companies that get revenues inside the US and/or import goods for sale from overseas (lower COGS in this case). In order to help readers pick a few stocks for the next 5-10 years, I have decided to compile a list based on these three criteria:
(1) Zero long-term debt;
(2) US (mostly) revenues;
(3) Revenue CAGR in excess of 5% for the last five years (I like growing companies, including GARP).
I used Capital IQ to filter the stocks and picked out FIVE names I recognized:
- Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) - 23.8% revenue CAGR over the last 5 years, a market cap of over $3B, and a P/E ratio of 33.8x.
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) - revenue CAGR of 22.5% of the five-year period, a market cap of $450M, and a P/E ratio of 28.9x.
- Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Co., Ltd. (CCSC) - top line CAGR of 16.5%, a market cap of $127M, and a P/E ratio of 29.8x
- Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) - 16.0% revenue CAGR over the last 5 years, a market cap of over $30B, and a P/E ratio of 53.2x.
- Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) - revenue CAGR of 11.3% of the five-year period, a market cap of $11.3B, and a P/E ratio of 22.6x (lowest on the list).
I am not going to go into too much detail here but I want to outline one big thing I like about each company and one thing I dislike:
- Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) - the stock is currently trading just 17% above the 52-week lows (in fact, at the levels of 2011). What I do not like about it is that it has not been growing dividends very effectively, even though the company generates sufficient cash flows to increase payments by 30%-50%, according to
- Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) - in 2016, the company will start making money from franchise acquisitions,
- Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Co., Ltd. (CCSC) - the company is a leading QSR chain in Southwestern China, according to its
- Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) - according to
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) - the company is growing really fast: it has shown a 20% revenue growth in fiscal 2015 and expects to show a sales growth of over 25% in 2016 (22%+ coming from new store openings and 5%-7% - from SSS), according to the
I hope readers take a further look into some of the stocks I outlined above. Let me know what you think about the list, as well!