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Buy Dollar General For The Long-Term But Wait Until Tomorrow

Discounters have shown a lot of success on the market in the past five or so. Specifically, Dollar General (DG) has been ahead of the pack, almost quadrupling in market value since 2010:

As of February 27, 2015, Dollar General operated in 11 879 retail stores in 43 states in the US. The company looks quite healthy, as its 10-year average compound annual growth rate in revenues is about 10%, and the 10-year average EPS CAGR is about 13%. Some other key data: ROE is currently at about 22%, while the industry average is slightly above 16%. ROA stands at circa 10%, while the industry average is 6%. All these results have been achieved with a below-average leverage: 0.5x vs 0.6x industry average:

(Source: Morningstar)

The current P/E multiple of about 17.5x is in-line with the broader market. The three-year net income growth rate of almost 12% annually implies that the company is slightly overvalued based on the PEG ratio. On the other hand, keep in mind that the market has been valuing the company at a premium because it has been successfully growing its market share (doing it organically, too). 

I think that the company is a long-term buy as it successfully grows its market presence in the cutthroat environment, while also maintaining a strong balance sheet. Keep in mind, however, that tomorrow Dollar General will be reporting its earnings. This may create a short-term volatility in the stock (in either direction).

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